Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

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1. May 2025

Market gauge	May result	2025 year-to-date	Key point
S&P 500 (the 500 biggest U.S. companies)	up ~6 %	down ~1 %	Hopes that tariff hikes might pause boosted prices, then some profit-taking at month-end
Nasdaq 100 (mostly large tech names)	up ~10 %	up ~4 %	Artificial-intelligence giants led the charge
European shares	up 2 %	down 5 %	Southern Europe held up; German exporters worried about import taxes
Asian shares (excluding Japan)	down 3 %	down 8 %	Higher U.S. tariffs hurt Asian exporters
Bitcoin (largest crypto-currency)	up 12 %	up 15 %	New “exchange-traded funds” poured money into Bitcoin

(Returns include price moves plus any dividends.)

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2. Main Forces Moving Markets

Tariffs (import taxes)

• The United States delayed a big tariff increase on Europe until 9 July but kept very high taxes on Chinese goods. Legal battles make the timetable unclear, and investors dislike that uncertainty.

Economic clues

• Inflation (Consumer Price Index): Prices in April were 2.3 % higher than a year earlier, the slowest rise in four years.

• Trade gap: America still buys more than it sells abroad, trimming first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) — the broad measure of the economy — by about 0.2 percentage points.

• Jobs: First-time unemployment claims jumped to 241 000 in early May, the highest since February.

• Interest rates: The Federal Reserve — the U.S. central bank — kept its main rate at 4.25 %–4.50 % and said the tariff picture makes the outlook blurry.

Which sectors are hot or not

Sector	Current trend	Why it matters
Technology & Artificial Intelligence	Strong sales; possible future antitrust probes	Growth driver for U.S. stock indexes
Clean (green) energy	Long-term promise, short-term swings in subsidies and costs	Attractive but bumpy ride
Health care & biotechnology	Steady drug discoveries; politicians still eye pricing rules	Good for steady growth seekers
Manufacturing & heavy industry	Hit by higher import costs; moving factories home is expensive	Profits under pressure
Consumer spending	Wage growth still beats inflation, but April retail sales slowed	Early warning sign if shoppers pull back

Crypto as a shock absorber

Bitcoin drew about US $5.5 billion of fresh money through new exchange-traded funds in May and now moves less in sync with stocks. Some investors treat it as an alternative safety valve.

3. Three Possible Paths for the Rest of 2025

Scenario	Our odds*	Likely mood in markets	Portfolio ideas (simple version)
A. Choppy but okay – tariff increases delayed again; growth stays slow	55%	Big day-to-day swings but no meltdown	Keep a mix: strong tech names, some green-energy and cash-rich health-care firms, plus a balance of short- and long-dated government bonds
B. Trouble grows – tariffs bite hard, economy slows yet prices stay high (“stagflation”)	30%	Stocks could fall 15 % or more; investors flock to U.S. dollars, gold, and Bitcoin	Hold extra cash, add gold or other raw materials, favour defensive health-care shares
C. Pleasant surprise – tariffs rolled back, inflation keeps cooling	15%	Broad rally led by smaller, cheaper companies	Shift some funds into small-company shares and select European and Asian bargains

*House view from the JSG Investment Committee, June 2025.

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4. Simple Action List

1. Spread your bets — diversify across countries, industries, and types of assets (shares, bonds, cash, maybe a small crypto slice).

2. Watch these four signposts:

• U.S. inflation report on 12 June — first to show any direct tariff impact.

  
  

• Weekly new unemployment claims — a steady climb above 250 000 would flash warning lights.

  
  

• Ten-year U.S. government-bond yield — above 4.5 % could signal stress.

  
  

• Bitcoin near US $120 000 — a key test of momentum.

3. Keep enough “rainy-day” cash — ideally at least three months of living costs in easy-to-access form.

4. Talk with your adviser — tax rules, tariffs, and markets can change fast; professional guidance helps you stay on course.

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5. Bottom Line

May delivered the best stock bounce in decades, yet warning signs — uncertain tariffs, weaker factory surveys (Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI), and rising jobless claims — tell us to stay nimble. A well-diversified, regularly reviewed portfolio is the smartest play for the rest of 2025.

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your investments and risk level on track.

Regards,

The Just Service Client Service Team