House View on Investment Markets for the balance of 2024

From the Just Service Global Investment Committee

Positive Themes:

Selective Technology: While corrections are likely this year, the sector remains fundamentally strong due to AI, IoT, and 5G. Focus on undervalued, high-growth areas within technology, excluding Netflix.

Healthcare: The industry is poised for significant growth driven by digital transformation and AI. Additionally, consider the Hospitality & Luxury Goods and Services industries for potential opportunities.

ASEAN: This region is expected to outperform globally, led by Vietnam and Indonesia. Actively invest (DCA) in these regions now to capitalize on their growth potential.

Neutral Themes:

US Economy: The upcoming election creates uncertainty, but historical data suggests minimal impact on the stock market. However, geopolitical considerations remain relevant. The economy and the stock market can diverge in performance.

Negative Themes:

China: While concerns persist, a significant slowdown is not guaranteed. The current market conditions might present a compelling entry point. Consider investing in actively managed China funds that can navigate the complexities of the market. Waiting for perfect economic news could lead to missed gains.

Emerging Markets (EM): Challenges like global slowdown and rising interest rates exist, but lower US rates could be highly beneficial. EMs currently offer potentially better value and lower risk compared to US equities. Invest strategically before US rates decrease.

Commodities: The shift towards renewables is ongoing, but intermittency issues and global headwinds could lead to price increases. The downward trend may be reversing. Commodities are likely undervalued relative to equities.

Heads or Tails:

Cryptocurrency: The outlook remains highly uncertain and volatile. Invest cautiously with a high-risk tolerance. Bitcoin might reach $75,000 soon, followed by a correction and then a potential rise to $100,000+ by October 24th, but expect significant fluctuations.

Additional Considerations:

US Election: The market might correct in October before rallying year-end, potentially reaching new highs for the S&P 500. Significant deviations from current highs could present attractive buying opportunities. Focus on low PE, high-quality tech stocks or funds.

Stay informed about the candidates' economic platforms and potential market reactions.

Favored Sectors:

Selective Technology: Prioritize undervalued areas with strong growth potential and robust earnings.

ASEAN Economies: Actively invest in these high-growth economies with strong fundamentals. Increase exposure when US interest rates decrease and the perception of China improves.

Emerging Markets: Invest strategically before US rates decrease to capitalize on potential benefits and potentially better value compared to US equities.

Less Favored Sectors:

China: While a slowdown is a possibility, the current market offers a potentially attractive entry point. Consider investing in actively managed China funds.

Commodities: The sector is likely to be volatile, but prices might be rising due to various factors. Commodities are likely undervalued.

As always talk to your adviser within the Just Service Network if you would like information or otherwise review your personal financial planning.

For all enquiries talk to your adviser or email info@justserviceglobal.com

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

Key Investment Themes of 2024

Source: Simply Wall St

An update on industry views:

1. JP Morgan Asset Management:

Expect the unexpected.

A boring year for the US economy is expected, with growth slowing compared to 2023.

Consumer spending will be key for other economies.

A well-diversified portfolio is recommended to benefit from a range of outcomes.

US investors are underweight mid and small cap stocks, as well as emerging market stocks.

2. Russell Investments:

REITs are attractively valued and benefit from lower yields.

The "quality factor" is favored in REITs and other stocks.

Lower-quality REITs could disappoint if rates remain high.

Regional snapshots for Canada, Australia and New Zealand are provided.

3. Julius Bär:

Higher interest rates may not be sustainable due to global debt levels.

Central banks may tolerate inflation closer to 3%.

Rates could return to the 2-3.5% range sooner than expected.

4. T.Rowe Price:

Global equity markets face challenges and volatility.

Investors need to look beyond big tech and explore a wider range of sectors and regions.

Opportunities may be found in US healthcare, energy, emerging markets, Japan and certain Chinese "high-tech industrials".

5. Blackrock:

The emerging climate resilience theme is highlighted.

Blackrock published a 7-page report on this theme and potential opportunities.

6. Lazard:

Sentiment around China may be too negative.

China's government stimulus measures and stabilizing property sector are mentioned.

China's role in the renewable energy supply chain and EV industry is emphasized.

Outlooks for the Eurozone, Japan and geopolitical issues are also covered.

7. Morgan Stanley:

Fixed income offers better risk/reward trade-offs than other asset classes.

China's challenges will continue to be a headwind for its own economy and others.

India and Mexico are exceptions and expected to benefit from strong GDP growth and supply chain shifts.

8. Merrill:

The US equity market and economy have outperformed most since 2009.

The US share of global GDP has remained stable despite China's growth.

US equities deserve a substantial premium due to resilience and corporate performance.

9. JP Morgan Research:

Recession risk is modest, but economic and earnings growth will weigh on returns.

Inflation will remain stubborn and rates will stay higher for longer.

Market volatility may be needed before substantial rate cuts occur.

US stocks will continue to trade at a premium due to strong cash flows and large tech weightings.

Emerging market stocks could improve later in 2024 due to undervaluation and underweight investor exposure.

10. Goldman Sachs:

The Fed will cut rates quickly if volatility picks up ("Fed Put").

A "higher for longer" rates scenario would hurt heavily indebted companies and consumer-facing businesses.

Positive yields are now available from fixed-income assets, allowing for diversified portfolios again.

Overall Insight:

Research teams are cautiously optimistic, but expect lower returns than 2023 with pockets of outperformance.

Volatility could come from geopolitics, interest rates, and corporate profits.

2024 could be a good year to buy quality stocks at attractive prices.

Prepare a watchlist with your target stocks and prices.

As always talk to your adviser within the Just Service Network if you would like information or otherwise review your personal financial planning.

For all enquiries talk to your adviser or email info@justserviceglobal.com

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

"Snapshot of world conflicts - to help guide with personal financial planning"

Source: Simply Wall St

Challenges globally in early 2024:

Ukraine:

Stalemate in the war, despite Western support.

Difficulty delivering advanced weapons.

Ukrainian counter-offensive faltered.

Resource depletion and potential collapse of Ukrainian forces.

Putin needs only hold current territory to claim victory.

International Pariah Status for Putin:

Indicted by ICC but still travels freely and receives support.

Western sanctions ineffective due to alternative markets.

Many nations indifferent to Russian atrocities in Ukraine.

Gaza War:

Diverts attention and resources from Ukraine.

Makes West appear complicit in destruction of Gaza.

Raises Iranian influence and fuels anti-Western sentiment.

Iran:

Nuclear ambitions and expanding influence through proxy militias.

Close alliance with Russia, supplying drones for Ukraine war.

Africa's Sahel:

Military coups oust pro-Western leaders and invite Wagner Group mercenaries.

South Africa joins naval exercises with Russia and China.

North Korea:

Forged close ties with Russia, sending weapons for Ukraine war.

Continued ballistic missile tests.

China:

Assertive claims over South China Sea and Taiwan.

Glimmer of Hope:

Renewed defensive purpose of NATO.

Gaza war may force renewed focus on Palestinian statehood.

Overall:

The West is facing numerous setbacks on the global stage.

Ukraine war is not progressing as hoped, and Putin enjoys relative international impunity.

Other conflicts and alliances further challenge Western interests.

A glimmer of hope exists in a potential renewed effort towards resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As always talk to your adviser within the Just Service Network if you would like information or otherwise review your personal financial planning.

For all enquiries talk to your adviser or email info@justserviceglobal.com

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team