JSG Global Market Update: Navigating your financial planning priorities in the "New Reality"

The global economy is currently undergoing a significant shift. Historically, markets followed a free market cycle, but over the past 20 years Central Banks have taken more control. Recently, events have changed the "rules of the game." This update breaks down these changes and explains how we are protecting your capital.

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1. The End of the "Safety Net" Economy

In the past, whenever the stock market dropped, Central Banks (like the US Federal Reserve) would step in to "save" it by printing money or lowering interest rates.

• The Problem: This constant intervention has prevented markets from naturally resetting. Instead of a quick "crash and recovery," we are seeing a "slow-motion crisis." * The Result: Your savings may not be "crashing," but their purchasing power is eroding. This is a silent decline where the cost of living—utilities, food, and healthcare—rises faster than traditional "safe" investments.

2. Three Major Shocks Hitting the Market

We are currently navigating through three overlapping challenges that are redefining investment risks:

• The Energy Crisis: Recent conflicts in the Middle East, specifically threats to the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow sea passage where 20% of the world’s oil flows), have pushed energy prices higher. This acts as a "tax" on the entire global economy, keeping inflation high.

  
  

• The "Private Credit" Strain: Many companies borrowed money from private lenders rather than traditional banks. This sector has grown to $3 trillion but is now showing signs of stress. Some of these funds have "halted redemptions"—meaning investors are trapped and cannot get their money out.

  
  

• The AI Disruption: While AI is exciting, it is a "deflationary wrecking ball" for older tech companies. New, lean AI teams can now do the work of giant corporations for a fraction of the cost, threatening the profits of established businesses that many portfolios rely on.

3. The Silver Lining: The Great Energy Transition

High oil prices are painful, but they are accelerating a massive shift. The cost of solar and wind energy has dropped so significantly that it is now often cheaper than fossil fuels. We are moving from a world of "unstable oil" to a world of "local, renewable power." This transition creates significant long-term opportunities for those invested in the right infrastructure.

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What This Means for Your Financial Planning

In this complex environment, the "buy and hold" strategy of the last decade may no longer be enough. Here is how we are adapting:

• Prioritizing Liquidity: We avoid "trapped" investments. We focus on Liquid Alternatives—funds that can be priced and traded daily so we can react quickly to news.

  
  

• Focusing on "Hard Assets": To protect against a weakening US Dollar and inflation, we emphasize tangible value, such as Gold, Energy infrastructure, and companies with strong "cash flow" (actual money in the bank, not just projected growth).

  
  

• Strategic Use of Alternatives: We have increased our focus on alternative investment strategies to ensure both downside protection and market volatility are managed at all times. This approach is designed to avoid the significant portfolio drops that typically accompany major market corrections.

  
  

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A Critical Reminder on Your Strategy

While these market insights provide a roadmap, successful investing is never "one size fits all." The guidelines mentioned above are general market views. The specific "mix" of assets in your portfolio must always be tailored to your unique situation, including:

1. Your Risk Profile: How much "upside" you want versus how much "downside" you can tolerate.

   
   

2. Time Horizon: When you actually need to access your capital (e.g., retirement in 2 years vs. 15 years).

   
   

3. Existing Assets: Your property, pensions, and other holdings outside of this portfolio.

Next Steps: We encourage you to reach out to your adviser in the JSG Network of advisory firms to review your current holdings. We can ensure your strategy remains aligned with your personal goals in light of these global shifts.

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your personal financial planning on track.

— The Just Service Global Client Service Team

Client Market Update – August 2025

August was another busy month in markets, with investors balancing strong equity performance against ongoing concerns around tariffs, debt, and inflation. Here’s a concise update to help you understand what happened, why it matters, and what you can do to stay on track.

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August Snapshot

• Stocks (S&P 500): up about 2% in August; set new record highs late in the month.

  
  

• Small Caps (Russell 2000): outperformed larger companies by roughly 5%.

  
  

• 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yield: ended August around 4.23%.

  
  

• Gold: touched a record high during the month as investors sought safety.

  
  

• Bitcoin: finished August near $108,000 after a volatile summer.

  
  

• Oil (Brent): remained range-bound in the mid-$60s per barrel.

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Big Issues in August

• Tariffs: The U.S. kept pressure on trade partners, creating uncertainty for global companies.

  
  

• Debt & Rates: Government borrowing stayed heavy. Yields hovered above 4.2%.

  
  

• Inflation: July consumer prices, reported in August, rose 2.7% year-over-year.

  
  

• Gold Rush: Geopolitical and policy worries helped push gold futures to a record.

  
  

• Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin cooled into month-end near $108k, while Ethereum gained interest.

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Special Focus – Never Bet Against America

A recent article reminded us why the U.S. continues to hold unmatched long-term strengths, whatever the headlines may suggest:

• The world’s largest connected farmland and river system, enabling cheap and efficient trade.

  
  

• Natural defenses from two oceans and multiple mountain ranges.

  
  

• Energy independence as the leading oil and gas producer.

  
  

• Global alliances that extend U.S. reach and influence.

  
  

• Client takeaway: short-term noise aside, U.S. innovation and scale remain powerful drivers.

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What You Can Do

• Stay diversified: hold a mix of U.S., global, and real assets like gold or commodities.

  
  

• Keep bond risk modest: favor short- to medium-term bonds while yields remain elevated.

  
  

• Focus on quality: companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power.

  
  

• Crypto with care: keep allocations small and use regulated funds only.

  
  

• Maintain a cash buffer: ideally three months of spending in an easy-access account.

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Bottom Line

Markets in August reminded us that while headlines can be noisy—tariffs, debt, inflation—the deeper story is that America’s long-term advantages and global scale remain powerful. The best approach is to stay balanced, diversified, and in regular contact with your JSG adviser to ensure your investments remain aligned with your goals.

Call to Action:

Stay close with your adviser within the JSG Network to ensure your investment strategy and portfolios stay relevant to the market as well as to your risk profile and timeframe(s).

— The Just Service Global Client Service Team

Market Update – August 2025

1. The Big Picture: What’s Changed Since July?

The cross-currents of policy and economic data intensified as we moved into August. The market is now digesting implemented tariffs and another month of stubborn inflation, creating a more complex landscape than we saw in Q2.

Indicator (latest read)	Direction	Why It Matters
US-EU/Mexico Tariffs	↑	The threatened 30% blanket tariff on many goods was implemented on August 1st after talks failed to produce a last-minute deal.
July CPI (released Aug 12)	↑ to 2.9%	Inflation accelerated slightly again, cementing fears that price pressures are becoming entrenched despite a slowing economy
10-Year Treasury Yield	↑ to 4.65%	The bond market is demanding higher returns to compensate for persistent inflation and the deluge of new government debt.
Q2 Earnings Season	→ / ↓	Most companies beat lowered expectations, but management commentary was overwhelmingly cautious, citing margin pressure from rising costs and new tariffs.

Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JSG Analysis

2. Two Core Narratives Driving Markets Now

A. From Tariff Threat to Tariff Reality The trade story has shifted from a risk to a reality. The implementation of broad tariffs on August 1st triggered immediate, though measured, retaliation from European and Mexican trade officials. The direct impact is now visible in sectors heavily reliant on international supply chains, particularly automotive, industrial machinery, and consumer electronics. The key question for the second half of the year is whether this is the final move or the opening salvo in a wider trade conflict.

• Portfolio Angle: The case for owning companies with domestic US focus, resilient supply chains, and strong pricing power (the ability to pass on costs) has strengthened. Multinationals with complex global operations face significant earnings headwinds.

B. The "Stagflation" Whisper Gets Louder July’s economic data painted a challenging picture: economic growth is clearly moderating (evidenced by cautious corporate outlooks) while inflation remains sticky and above target. This combination—stagnant growth plus inflation—is known as stagflation, an environment that can be punishing for both stocks and bonds. While we are not officially in a stagflationary period, the market is beginning to price in the risk.

• Portfolio Angle: In this environment, real assets historically perform well. This includes commodities like gold and energy, and inflation-protected bonds (TIPS). Quality stocks with low debt and stable cash flows are also better positioned to weather an economic slowdown than high-growth, speculative names.

3. Beyond the Headlines: The Growing Appeal of Private Credit

As banks tighten lending standards amidst economic uncertainty, many solid mid-sized companies are turning to non-bank lenders for capital. This has super-charged the world of Private Credit. These investments, which involve lending money directly to companies, can offer attractive yields (often floating-rate, which benefit when rates rise) and are not subject to daily stock market volatility. Once the domain of large institutions, this asset class is becoming more accessible to qualified investors through specialized funds. It represents a compelling alternative income source but comes with its own risks, primarily illiquidity (you can’t sell instantly) and credit risk (the borrower could default).

4. Action Checklist for August

• Prioritise Quality: Within your equity allocation, lean towards companies with fortress-like balance sheets and a history of dividend growth.

• Keep Bond Duration Short: With yields still trending higher, longer-term bonds remain vulnerable. Short-term bonds and floating-rate notes offer a safer harbour for fixed-income allocations.

• Crypto Consolidation: After hitting a new high near $123,000 in July, Bitcoin has pulled back and is consolidating. This is a healthy, expected pattern. The "digital gold" narrative in an era of high debt remains intact, but volatility is a given. Keep allocations small and use regulated ETFs for simplicity and security.

5. Bottom Line

The market has entered a tougher phase where the theoretical risks of June have become the concrete headwinds of August. Navigating the twin challenges of implemented tariffs and stagflationary pressures requires a defensive and deliberate approach. A balanced portfolio of quality equities, short-duration bonds, real assets, and (for suitable investors) select alternatives remains the most prudent strategy.

As always, please reach out to your Just Service Global adviser to discuss how these developments impact your specific financial goals.

— The Just Service Global Client Service Team