Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

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1. May 2025

Market gauge	May result	2025 year-to-date	Key point
S&P 500 (the 500 biggest U.S. companies)	up ~6 %	down ~1 %	Hopes that tariff hikes might pause boosted prices, then some profit-taking at month-end
Nasdaq 100 (mostly large tech names)	up ~10 %	up ~4 %	Artificial-intelligence giants led the charge
European shares	up 2 %	down 5 %	Southern Europe held up; German exporters worried about import taxes
Asian shares (excluding Japan)	down 3 %	down 8 %	Higher U.S. tariffs hurt Asian exporters
Bitcoin (largest crypto-currency)	up 12 %	up 15 %	New “exchange-traded funds” poured money into Bitcoin

(Returns include price moves plus any dividends.)

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2. Main Forces Moving Markets

Tariffs (import taxes)

• The United States delayed a big tariff increase on Europe until 9 July but kept very high taxes on Chinese goods. Legal battles make the timetable unclear, and investors dislike that uncertainty.

Economic clues

• Inflation (Consumer Price Index): Prices in April were 2.3 % higher than a year earlier, the slowest rise in four years.

• Trade gap: America still buys more than it sells abroad, trimming first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) — the broad measure of the economy — by about 0.2 percentage points.

• Jobs: First-time unemployment claims jumped to 241 000 in early May, the highest since February.

• Interest rates: The Federal Reserve — the U.S. central bank — kept its main rate at 4.25 %–4.50 % and said the tariff picture makes the outlook blurry.

Which sectors are hot or not

Sector	Current trend	Why it matters
Technology & Artificial Intelligence	Strong sales; possible future antitrust probes	Growth driver for U.S. stock indexes
Clean (green) energy	Long-term promise, short-term swings in subsidies and costs	Attractive but bumpy ride
Health care & biotechnology	Steady drug discoveries; politicians still eye pricing rules	Good for steady growth seekers
Manufacturing & heavy industry	Hit by higher import costs; moving factories home is expensive	Profits under pressure
Consumer spending	Wage growth still beats inflation, but April retail sales slowed	Early warning sign if shoppers pull back

Crypto as a shock absorber

Bitcoin drew about US $5.5 billion of fresh money through new exchange-traded funds in May and now moves less in sync with stocks. Some investors treat it as an alternative safety valve.

3. Three Possible Paths for the Rest of 2025

Scenario	Our odds*	Likely mood in markets	Portfolio ideas (simple version)
A. Choppy but okay – tariff increases delayed again; growth stays slow	55%	Big day-to-day swings but no meltdown	Keep a mix: strong tech names, some green-energy and cash-rich health-care firms, plus a balance of short- and long-dated government bonds
B. Trouble grows – tariffs bite hard, economy slows yet prices stay high (“stagflation”)	30%	Stocks could fall 15 % or more; investors flock to U.S. dollars, gold, and Bitcoin	Hold extra cash, add gold or other raw materials, favour defensive health-care shares
C. Pleasant surprise – tariffs rolled back, inflation keeps cooling	15%	Broad rally led by smaller, cheaper companies	Shift some funds into small-company shares and select European and Asian bargains

*House view from the JSG Investment Committee, June 2025.

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4. Simple Action List

1. Spread your bets — diversify across countries, industries, and types of assets (shares, bonds, cash, maybe a small crypto slice).

2. Watch these four signposts:

• U.S. inflation report on 12 June — first to show any direct tariff impact.

  
  

• Weekly new unemployment claims — a steady climb above 250 000 would flash warning lights.

  
  

• Ten-year U.S. government-bond yield — above 4.5 % could signal stress.

  
  

• Bitcoin near US $120 000 — a key test of momentum.

3. Keep enough “rainy-day” cash — ideally at least three months of living costs in easy-to-access form.

4. Talk with your adviser — tax rules, tariffs, and markets can change fast; professional guidance helps you stay on course.

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5. Bottom Line

May delivered the best stock bounce in decades, yet warning signs — uncertain tariffs, weaker factory surveys (Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI), and rising jobless claims — tell us to stay nimble. A well-diversified, regularly reviewed portfolio is the smartest play for the rest of 2025.

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your investments and risk level on track.

Regards,

The Just Service Client Service Team

Market Update 9th May 2025: Growth, Tariffs, and the Shifting Economic Landscape

Introduction:

The 2025 market presents growth opportunities alongside the complexities of Trump's strategic tariffs. This is a concise update analyzing sector prospects, trade policy impacts, and expert views, including the role of crypto.

Executive Summary: Sector Opportunities and Risks

• Bullish: Tech & AI, Green Energy, Healthcare & Biotech, select Asian/Southern European markets.

• Bearish Pressures: Manufacturing, industrial, and consumer-sensitive sectors.

Emerging Economic Contraction Risks:

• Recent data points to a potential Q1 contraction due to trade deficits, weak spending, pre-tariff activity, and spending cuts.

• Red flags: rising jobless claims, falling home sales, potential stagflation.

Current Market Landscape & Policy-Driven Risks:

• S&P 500 growth targets face volatility from tariffs and potential contraction.

• Corporate earnings under pressure from trade and policy uncertainty.

Expert Insights:

• Tech & AI: Continued growth, but regulatory scrutiny possible. S&P 500 stability supported by tech.

• Green Energy: Long-term potential with short-term policy/investment volatility.

• Healthcare & Biotech: Steady growth in innovation, but cost concerns remain.

• Crypto (Bitcoin): Potential beneficiary of tariff-driven volatility and fiat currency uncertainty. Monitor performance against dollar fluctuations. Divided expert opinions on long-term stability.

• Manufacturing & Industrial: Significant challenges from tariffs and trade disruptions. Reshoring is costly.

• Consumer Spending: Vulnerable to inflation and economic downturn.

The US Economy and Equities: Two Potential Scenarios (Condensed):

• Scenario 1: Status Quo (with Volatility): Increased market swings due to tariffs and economic shifts. Focus on resilient sectors and active management.

• Scenario 2: Major Disruption (Exacerbated Weakness): Significant market decline, demand for safe havens. Focus on capital preservation and defensive stocks.

Key Actions for Investors:

• Diversify, monitor economic/political developments, rebalance, conduct due diligence, seek advice, watch key indicators (bond yields, inflation, Bitcoin).

Conclusion:

2025 presents a complex landscape shaped by growth opportunities and the strategic impact of Trump's tariffs. Vigilance and adaptability are crucial for navigating these uncertainties.

Call to Action:

Stay close with your adviser within the JSG Network to ensure your investment strategy and portfolios stay relevant to the market as well as to your risk profile and timeframe(s).

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

Navigating Market Turbulence: Staying Grounded in a Shifting Landscape

Dear Clients,

Financial markets have certainly been generating a lot of noise lately. We have witnessed some unusual movements that warrant a closer look on a very regular basis.. At Just Service Global (JSG), we understand that these fluctuations can be concerning, and we want to provide you with a clear perspective and, more importantly, reasons to remain calm and connected to your financial adviser within the JSG Global Network.

Decoding the Recent Market Activity

Dominion Fund Management recently highlighted three key interconnected issues that have contributed to the recent market jitters:

1. Rising US Government Bond Yields: We've seen a notable drop in US government bond prices, particularly for longer-term bonds. This inverse relationship means that interest rates, or yields, have been pushed higher.

2. Weakening US Dollar: The US dollar has experienced a decline in value compared to other global currencies.

3. Surging Stock Market Volatility: The stock market has seen a significant increase in volatility, reaching its highest level in the past five years.

   
   

Interestingly, this combination of events is somewhat counterintuitive. Typically, when stock markets become turbulent and fear rises (as indicated by the VIX "fear index"), investors tend to flock to the safety of US government bonds, driving their prices up and yields down. However, we've observed the opposite: rising fear accompanied by investors selling Treasuries, pushing yields higher. Simultaneously, the weakening dollar defies the usual expectation that higher US interest rates would attract international capital and boost its value.

The Underlying Cause: Uncertainty in US Economic Policy

A significant factor contributing to this unusual market behavior is the perceived unpredictability in US economic policy. Recent pronouncements and subsequent adjustments regarding tariff plans have created a sense of confusion and instability among investors. This kind of inconsistency can make investors nervous, as it becomes difficult to anticipate future policy directions.

When the direction of economic leadership appears uncertain, especially against a backdrop of high government debt and lingering inflation concerns, global investors may start to question the traditional safe-haven status of US assets like bonds and the dollar. This can lead to a demand for higher returns (higher yields) to compensate for the perceived increased risk of holding US Treasuries.

The Strain on Global Financial Pillars

The fact that both the US dollar and Treasuries – historically considered the cornerstones of global finance – are experiencing strain is a serious signal. A decline in trust in these assets could indeed create broader instability within the global financial system.

Reasons to Stay Calm and Focused

While these developments are noteworthy, it's crucial to avoid overreacting. Markets often experience periods of adjustment and volatility, particularly at potential turning points. The rapid shifts we've seen may represent investors repositioning their portfolios, a process that can lead to temporary confusion before settling down.

It's also important to consider the broader context. As Dominion Fund Management points out, while the speed of recent changes has been unsettling, the US dollar's value has only returned to levels seen before the last presidential election, and bond yields are back to where they were earlier this year.

Furthermore, there are underlying strengths in the US economy. Recent data showed a healthy increase in job creation, inflation appears to be cooling, and company earnings remain robust. While economic clouds may be on the horizon, the fundamental economic engine is, for now, still showing resilience.

Your JSG Adviser: Your Guide Through Market Uncertainty

In times like these, having a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever. Your adviser within the Just Service Network can provide invaluable support by:

• Offering a rational and informed perspective on market events, filtering out emotional responses.

• Analyzing how these global dynamics might specifically impact your portfolio.

• Reiterating the importance of diversification and your long-term financial plan.

• Helping you avoid impulsive decisions that could be detrimental to your financial health.

• Providing tailored guidance based on your individual circumstances, goals, risk appetite and timeframes.

The current market turbulence, influenced by global economic concerns and policy uncertainty, underscores the need for a well-diversified and strategically managed portfolio. If you are not in current contact with your adviser within the Just Service Network, we strongly urge you to do so.

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team