Mid‑Month Market Update – July 2025

1. What’s New Since Late June

Indicator (latest read)	Direction	Why it matters
Consumer Price Index (CPI): prices up 2.7 % year over year in June	↑ from 2.4 %	This lift keeps inflation in focus
Jobless claims: 227 000 in early July	↓ fourth weekly drop	Labour market still firm despite slowdown worries
10‑year Treasury yield: 4.50 % on 15 July	↑ from 4.26 % at end‑June	Higher borrowing costs for mortgages and companies
Bitcoin: record 123 000 USD (14 July)	↑ 25 % since mid‑June	“Hard‑asset” hedge appeal grows as debt climbs

__________________________________________________________________________________

2. Two Big Policy Dramas

1. Tariffs enter overtime

The countdown shifts. A July 9 deadline for a deal with Europe passed without new duties, but Washington has now threatened a 30 % blanket tariff on imports from both the European Union and Mexico starting 1 August if talks stall. Wider levies—up to 50 % on some metals and goods from other trade partners—are also on the table. European officials are already mapping out retaliation plans.

Portfolio angle: Companies that rely on global supply chains (autos, electronics, apparel) could see margins squeezed next quarter. Domestically focused software, healthcare, and utilities remain relatively insulated.

2. The debt ceiling is gone, but the bill is growing

Unlimited federal borrowing continues after the June law that removed the cap. With national debt near 36 trillion USD and headed toward 55 trillion in a decade, interest payments already exceed defence spending. Higher Treasury issuance is beginning to nudge yields up, which feeds back into mortgage costs and corporate financing.

Portfolio angle: Short‑dated bonds and floating‑rate notes carry less price risk than long 20‑ or 30‑year maturities. A small allocation to real assets—commodities, inflation‑linked bonds, or even tightly regulated crypto exchange‑traded funds—can help offset currency weakness if the dollar drifts lower.

__________________________________________________________________________________

3. Action Checklist for July Clients

1. Stay balanced between growth stocks (technology, biotech) and defense plays (consumer staples, healthcare services).

2. Keep bond duration short—yields are rising faster than many expected.

3. Hold three months of living costs in easy‑access cash or money‑market funds to cushion surprises.

4. Review exposure to non‑U.S. assets. A softer dollar lifts foreign returns in dollar terms.

5. Crypto: proceed with caution. Limit any position to a size you can tolerate in a 40 % drawdown; prefer transparent, regulated funds over unverified platforms.

__________________________________________________________________________________

4. Bottom Line

Maintaining a well‑diversified mix—quality equities, shorter bonds, selective real assets, and (if appropriate) a measured crypto slice—remains the most sensible path.

Stay in touch with your Just Service Global adviser to adjust holdings as data and policies evolve through the rest of July.

— Just Service Client Service Team

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your personal financial planning on track.