Megatrends: The forces shaping our investment decisions

Source: Blackrock

Megatrends are powerful, transformative forces that can change the trajectory of the global economy by shifting the priorities of societies, driving innovation and redefining business models – all of which have an impact on investment decisions.

The 5 megatrends that have the ability to shape the future include:

1. Technological breakthroughs

Disruptive innovation is most likely to emerge in two scenarios; (i) new solutions are developed to resolve a significant constraint or challenge, or (ii) new competitors are attracted to industries with large profit pools and high returns.

Consider the advent of electric vehicles, e-commerce, solar panels, robotics, blockchain, cloud computing, streaming, smart grids and many other modern-day innovations. In each case, engineers and entrepreneurs are aiming to capitalise on the need for a new solution or a better alternative in existing markets.

2. Demographics and social change

Changes in global demographics will bring significant challenges and opportunities for societies and businesses. Italy and Germany lead the way in Europe with the median age of their populations at 47.9 and 46.6 years (only behind Japan at 48.2 years). In Western Europe, 1 in 5 people are older than 65 years of age and this is expected to rise to 1 in 4 people in the next decade. These trends are likely to slowly but steadily change the outlook for household spending (catering for older consumers), inflation rates, economic growth and government policy (the US already spends over 18% of GDP on healthcare). Ageing and the resulting decline in the labour force will hence require dramatic social and technological changes.

3. Emerging global wealth

In the last twenty years, developing economies have been lifted by the rising tide of globalisation and manufacturing shifting to Asia. Two decades of unprecedented growth has lifted China’s per capita GDP from a meagre 8% of US per capita GDP in 2000 to roughly 30% this year. This rapid growth has been enabled by significant infrastructure investments, support for an export-focused manufacturing base and increased spending on innovation (research & development or R&D). In turn this has resulted in persistent growth in household incomes; the World Bank notes that China alone is set to add one billion people to the global middle class between 2005-2030. 

4. Climate change and resource scarcity

An expanding population and the rising demand for food, energy and materials continue to strain the finite resources of the planet. The need for solutions that improve energy efficiency, lower food waste and provide alternatives to scarce resources has never been greater. In 2018, global emissions continued their march higher growing 1.7% yoy, and the US National Climate Assessment report noted that sea levels are now rising twice as fast as 25 years ago. Since the social and economic consequences of climate change are substantial, investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy has become ever more so important.

5. Rapid urbanization

With people in the world living in cities more than ever before – according to McKinsey as of October 2018, the top 50 cities account for 8% of global population – cities’ share of global growth is rising. As cities grow large, they require significant infrastructure, including communication networks (e.g. 5G, fibre), transit and transportation (e.g. metro, bridges), social infrastructure (e.g. hospitals, schools) and housing. This was a key driver of commodity demand and fixed investments in the last 10-15 years as China and other developing economies industrialised rapidly and millions of people migrated to cities.

Translating megatrends into investment themes

We strongly urge you to talk to your Just Service adviser on a regular basis as these trends are an important consideration when reviewing your investment portfolios.

For all enquiries email info@justserviceglobal.com

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

All content provided is for informational purposes only. Just Service makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained or found by following any link. Just Service will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor the availability of it. Just Service will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. This policy is subject to change at any time.

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Where will the market go in 2020: let's look into the US

Source: Ryan Cooper

A view held by many in the mainstream media is the stock market is a general barometer of economic health. If it's going up, then things are assumed to be going well — and if it falls a lot, then it's time to worry. Thus conservatives in the US have been celebrating the astounding stock rally of the Trump era, which has been more than twice as strong as the average since 1928 for presidents at this point in their term. To be sure, a stock market crash can have serious negative repercussions. But the current booming market is also evidence of a deeply sick economy — one geared to funnel money to the very tippy-top of the wealth distribution, and which is seriously vulnerable to another devastating financial crisis.

The first thing to know about stocks is that a huge fraction of the population owns no stock at all, and only the rich own them in significant quantities. A Gallup poll found that 55 percent of people own any stock — a majority, but most of them own only small amounts. If we break the population into 10 groups (or deciles) based on how much stock they own, we find that the top decile accounts for 86.8 percent of all stocks. The next decile owns 9.5 percent, the third 2.8 percent, and the rest little or nothing. Adding to this, the fraction of GDP going to labour costs has fallen sharply since the 1980s, while the fraction going to corporate profits has increased sharply, and the share of income and wealth taken up by the very rich has skyrocketed.

The broader economy, including all these public corporations, is still based on mass production and consumption. It follows that as inequality grows, the economy will sag and slow, because rich people disproportionately save their income rather than spend it, usually by buying financial assets like stocks. So as the financial markets are swamped by a tidal wave of profits, those stocks, in turn, become ever-more divorced from the health of the underlying corporate enterprise. The result is a marked tendency towards financial bubbles, as oceans of money slosh here and there looking for safe returns that can't exist because the mass public has little disposable income which would justify fresh investment in real enterprises. This is exactly the background that made the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession after 2008 so bad. The economy was fundamentally unsound, and it took only the kick of a financial panic to knock it over. 

The stock market is surging under Trump largely because of the massive tax cuts for corporations and the rich that Republicans passed in 2017. Contrary to their promises, corporations spent most of the windfall not on investment, but on dividends and share buybacks which fuelled gains in the market. Wages, meanwhile, are up slightly, but not anywhere nearly as much as stocks. Overall growth is also weak. This means the stock boom is built on sand — especially given how the Trump administration has dismantled much of the post-2008 financial regulation. I hope the top decile is enjoying themselves, because the good times can't last forever.

As always talk to your adviser within the Just Service network if you would like information or otherwise review your savings, investment or pension plans. For all enquiries email info@justserviceglobal.com

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

All content provided is for informational purposes only. Just Service makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained or found by following any link. Just Service will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor the availability of it. Just Service will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. This policy is subject to change at any time.

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