Navigating Market Turbulence: Staying Grounded in a Shifting Landscape

Dear Clients,

Financial markets have certainly been generating a lot of noise lately. We have witnessed some unusual movements that warrant a closer look on a very regular basis.. At Just Service Global (JSG), we understand that these fluctuations can be concerning, and we want to provide you with a clear perspective and, more importantly, reasons to remain calm and connected to your financial adviser within the JSG Global Network.

Decoding the Recent Market Activity

Dominion Fund Management recently highlighted three key interconnected issues that have contributed to the recent market jitters:

1. Rising US Government Bond Yields: We've seen a notable drop in US government bond prices, particularly for longer-term bonds. This inverse relationship means that interest rates, or yields, have been pushed higher.

2. Weakening US Dollar: The US dollar has experienced a decline in value compared to other global currencies.

3. Surging Stock Market Volatility: The stock market has seen a significant increase in volatility, reaching its highest level in the past five years.

   
   

Interestingly, this combination of events is somewhat counterintuitive. Typically, when stock markets become turbulent and fear rises (as indicated by the VIX "fear index"), investors tend to flock to the safety of US government bonds, driving their prices up and yields down. However, we've observed the opposite: rising fear accompanied by investors selling Treasuries, pushing yields higher. Simultaneously, the weakening dollar defies the usual expectation that higher US interest rates would attract international capital and boost its value.

The Underlying Cause: Uncertainty in US Economic Policy

A significant factor contributing to this unusual market behavior is the perceived unpredictability in US economic policy. Recent pronouncements and subsequent adjustments regarding tariff plans have created a sense of confusion and instability among investors. This kind of inconsistency can make investors nervous, as it becomes difficult to anticipate future policy directions.

When the direction of economic leadership appears uncertain, especially against a backdrop of high government debt and lingering inflation concerns, global investors may start to question the traditional safe-haven status of US assets like bonds and the dollar. This can lead to a demand for higher returns (higher yields) to compensate for the perceived increased risk of holding US Treasuries.

The Strain on Global Financial Pillars

The fact that both the US dollar and Treasuries – historically considered the cornerstones of global finance – are experiencing strain is a serious signal. A decline in trust in these assets could indeed create broader instability within the global financial system.

Reasons to Stay Calm and Focused

While these developments are noteworthy, it's crucial to avoid overreacting. Markets often experience periods of adjustment and volatility, particularly at potential turning points. The rapid shifts we've seen may represent investors repositioning their portfolios, a process that can lead to temporary confusion before settling down.

It's also important to consider the broader context. As Dominion Fund Management points out, while the speed of recent changes has been unsettling, the US dollar's value has only returned to levels seen before the last presidential election, and bond yields are back to where they were earlier this year.

Furthermore, there are underlying strengths in the US economy. Recent data showed a healthy increase in job creation, inflation appears to be cooling, and company earnings remain robust. While economic clouds may be on the horizon, the fundamental economic engine is, for now, still showing resilience.

Your JSG Adviser: Your Guide Through Market Uncertainty

In times like these, having a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever. Your adviser within the Just Service Network can provide invaluable support by:

• Offering a rational and informed perspective on market events, filtering out emotional responses.

• Analyzing how these global dynamics might specifically impact your portfolio.

• Reiterating the importance of diversification and your long-term financial plan.

• Helping you avoid impulsive decisions that could be detrimental to your financial health.

• Providing tailored guidance based on your individual circumstances, goals, risk appetite and timeframes.

The current market turbulence, influenced by global economic concerns and policy uncertainty, underscores the need for a well-diversified and strategically managed portfolio. If you are not in current contact with your adviser within the Just Service Network, we strongly urge you to do so.

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team

📉 Market Update – March 2025: The Calm Before the Storm or the Opportunity of a Generation?

Dear Clients,

Markets are tense, headlines are loud, and everyone’s asking the same question: Is this the bottom… or just the beginning of something bigger?

At Just Service Global (JSG), we’ve been tracking the data closely — and what we’re seeing now is not just another dip or bump in the road. We’re witnessing a convergence of warning signs that, historically, have preceded some of the most significant market events in modern history.

Here’s what’s happening, what it means for you, and why now more than ever, staying connected to your financial adviser within the JSG Global Network is essential.

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🚨 The Market Is Flashing Red… But Most People Aren’t Looking

Let’s break it down simply:

✅ Markets are at all-time highs.

Yet tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, and Google — the engines of past growth — are showing serious cracks. The AI rally is cooling. The semiconductor sector, which has been leading the charge, is now underperforming — often a precursor to broader declines.

✅ The Yield Curve Just Did Something Historic.

We’ve just come out of the longest yield curve inversion in recorded history — longer than before the Great Depression, longer than before the 2008 crash.

And in October 2024, the yield curve uninverted — which, historically, is the final signal that a recession is imminent.

But… nothing’s happened yet.

That’s the danger. It’s the calm before the storm — and most people are treating it like business as usual.

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⏳ The Time Lag Between Signals and Reality

In every past recession:

• The market continued higher after the warning signs flashed.

• The economy looked stable, even strong.

• The actual downturn came months later, catching most investors off guard.

  
  

Right now:

• Consumer debt is at record highs.

• Layoffs are creeping up.

• Middle-class spending is built on credit (the US), not earnings.

This isn't sustainable.

We’re watching a slow-motion shift — and just like in 2008 or 2020, it often takes time before the true impact shows up in portfolios.

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🏦 A Divided Economy – And a Rigged Game

It’s no secret: the wealthiest 0.1% have grown richer while the average person is falling behind. The markets may be up — but most people feel broke.

If you:

• Own stocks, property, gold, or crypto – you’re likely doing okay.

• Rely solely on wages or savings – you’re probably feeling squeezed.

  
  

The system isn’t broken — it’s just not built for everyone to win.

This is exactly why owning assets and working with a trusted financial adviser is no longer optional — it’s essential.

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🇺🇸 What’s Fueling the Uncertainty?

Adding to the volatility, former President Trump has proposed massive tariffs on Chinese goods — a move that would spike prices globally, disrupt supply chains, and risk reigniting inflation just as central banks were preparing to cut rates.

If that weren’t enough:

• Central banks are trapped — they want to lower rates, but inflation and geopolitical risks keep tying their hands.

• AI stocks are wobbling, and tech earnings are no longer lifting the entire market.

• The put-call ratio — a key fear indicator — still hasn’t hit panic levels. We may not be at the bottom yet.

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🔍 What Are Your Best Moves Right Now?

1. Don’t Chase the Bounce.

Short-term rallies often trap emotional investors. Let your adviser guide you through evidence-based decisions.

2. Stay Diversified. Stay Liquid.

Opportunities will emerge — but only for those who have the capital and the patience to act strategically.

3. Rebalance and Reassess.

Now is the time to evaluate whether your portfolio is resilient in a downturn, not just riding a bull market.

4. Stay Close to Your Adviser.

At JSG, we’re watching markets full time so you don’t have to. We’re here to help you avoid emotional mistakes and position you for the long term.

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🧭 Final Thought: The Smart Money is Patient

Some of the greatest wealth-building opportunities come during uncertain times — but only for those who are prepared, not panicked.

This isn’t about predicting the future — it’s about being positioned to succeed, no matter what the future holds.

History tells us that market stress leads to opportunity. But only if you’re aligned, informed, and ready.

That’s what we’re here for.

If you haven’t already scheduled your portfolio review for the new quarter, we urge you to do so today. This is a moment where being proactive could make all the difference in how the next 12 months unfold.

Let’s make sure you’re in the best position — whatever happens next.

Warm regards,

The Just Service Global Team

March 2025 Market Update: Navigating Uncertainties, with a Focus on Risks

Introduction:

Welcome to our latest market outlook. The balance of the year ahead presents a blend of exciting growth opportunities and potential risks. We’ll delve into sectors showing strong potential, and critically, analyze how the U.S. economy and equities might react under varying political scenarios, while also addressing recent economic indicators that suggest a potential contraction.

Executive Summary: Bullish Sectors

• Technology & AI: Continued dominance, driven by innovation in autonomous systems and machine learning.

• Green Energy: Robust growth fueled by global climate initiatives and renewable energy investments.

• Healthcare & Biotech: Advances in personalized medicine and chronic disease treatments offer strong returns.

• Geographic Diversification: Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal) and Asia (ex-China, particularly India and Southeast Asia) present compelling opportunities.

Emerging Economic Contraction Risks:

• Recent data from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker (for the US market) indicates a potential 1.5% contraction in Q1, a sharp reversal from previous growth projections.

• This downturn is attributed to:

-A record trade deficit driven by surging imports and sluggish exports.

-Weaker consumer spending.

-Pre-tariff stockpiling.

-Planned federal spending cuts and workforce reductions.

• Other red flags include rising jobless claims, falling pending home sales, and declining consumer confidence.

• These indicators suggest a potential “modest stagflationary shock”—higher inflation combined with lower GDP, as predicted by Apollo Management.

Current Market Landscape & Policy-Driven Risks:

The S&P 500 has seen strong growth, with median year-end targets around 6,600, and some firms projecting over 7,000.

Economic fundamentals remain relatively strong, with projected GDP growth of 2.1% and inflation around 2.4%. However, recent data is showing a potential reversal of these projections.

Corporate earnings are expected to accelerate, indicating sustainable business performance.

Recent tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China could lead to increased consumer prices and supply chain disruptions.

These policies create potential for short-term market volatility and economic uncertainty, and are contributing factors to the potential contraction.

The US Economy and Equities: Two Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1: Status Quo

• Assumptions:

-Trump maintains a significant level of political influence without major disruptions.

-Existing policies continue, with potential for further trade tensions, but no major civil unrest.

-The economy experiences increased volatility and potential for short-term contractions, as indicated by recent data.

• Likely Outcomes:

-Equities: Increased volatility due to policy uncertainties and economic fluctuations. Sector-specific growth in tech, green energy, and healthcare, but potential for downturns in sectors sensitive to trade and consumer spending.

-Economy: Steady growth, but with periods of contraction and higher inflation due to tariffs and policy changes. Supply chain adjustments and potential trade disputes.

-Investor Strategy:

Diversify across sectors and geographies, with a focus on resilient companies.

Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and resilience to policy changes.

Monitor policy developments and economic indicators closely, and be prepared to adjust portfolios quickly.

Maintain higher than usual cash reserves.

Scenario 2: Major Disruption – Loss of Confidence and Potential Unrest

• Assumptions:

-A significant decline in public confidence in Trump's leadership and policies, compounded by economic instability.

-Increased political polarization and potential for civil unrest.

-Economic instability due to policy uncertainties and potential market panic, worsened by existing contractionary trends.

• Likely Outcomes:

-Equities: Significant market downturn, with potential for sharp volatility. Safe-haven assets (gold, bonds) may see increased demand.

-Economy: Potential recession, with increased unemployment and decreased consumer spending. Supply chain disruptions and trade disruptions become severe.

-Investor Strategy:

-Increase allocation to safe-haven assets - historically primarily Gold and Bonds but now includes selected alternatives.

-Reduce exposure to highly volatile sectors.

-Focus on companies with strong balance sheets and essential goods/services.

-Consider defensive stocks.

• Consequences of Major Rebellion:

-A loss of international standing for the United States.

-Severe economic downturn, and a potential global recession.

-High social unrest, and a decrease in consumer confidence.

-Major uncertainty in the markets.

Key Actions for Investors:

• Diversification: Spread investments across multiple asset classes and geographies.

• Monitor Economic Indicators: pay close attention to GDP reports, trade data, and consumer spending trends.

• Rebalancing: Regularly adjust portfolios to maintain target allocations.

• Professional Guidance: Consult with your adviser to develop a personalized investment strategy.

• Monitor Political Climate: pay very close attention to public opinion and policy changes.

Conclusion:

2025 presents both opportunities and heightened risks. The potential for economic contraction, combined with policy uncertainties, requires a cautious and proactive approach. By staying informed, diversified, and flexible, investors can navigate the uncertainties and capitalize on growth opportunities. Our team is committed to providing you with the insights and guidance you need to achieve your financial goals.

Call to Action:

Contact your adviser within the JSG Network to discuss your investment strategy and ensure you're prepared for the year ahead.

Regards

The Just Service Client Service Team