Mid‑Month Market Update – July 2025

1. What’s New Since Late June

Indicator (latest read)	Direction	Why it matters
Consumer Price Index (CPI): prices up 2.7 % year over year in June	↑ from 2.4 %	This lift keeps inflation in focus
Jobless claims: 227 000 in early July	↓ fourth weekly drop	Labour market still firm despite slowdown worries
10‑year Treasury yield: 4.50 % on 15 July	↑ from 4.26 % at end‑June	Higher borrowing costs for mortgages and companies
Bitcoin: record 123 000 USD (14 July)	↑ 25 % since mid‑June	“Hard‑asset” hedge appeal grows as debt climbs

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2. Two Big Policy Dramas

1. Tariffs enter overtime

The countdown shifts. A July 9 deadline for a deal with Europe passed without new duties, but Washington has now threatened a 30 % blanket tariff on imports from both the European Union and Mexico starting 1 August if talks stall. Wider levies—up to 50 % on some metals and goods from other trade partners—are also on the table. European officials are already mapping out retaliation plans.

Portfolio angle: Companies that rely on global supply chains (autos, electronics, apparel) could see margins squeezed next quarter. Domestically focused software, healthcare, and utilities remain relatively insulated.

2. The debt ceiling is gone, but the bill is growing

Unlimited federal borrowing continues after the June law that removed the cap. With national debt near 36 trillion USD and headed toward 55 trillion in a decade, interest payments already exceed defence spending. Higher Treasury issuance is beginning to nudge yields up, which feeds back into mortgage costs and corporate financing.

Portfolio angle: Short‑dated bonds and floating‑rate notes carry less price risk than long 20‑ or 30‑year maturities. A small allocation to real assets—commodities, inflation‑linked bonds, or even tightly regulated crypto exchange‑traded funds—can help offset currency weakness if the dollar drifts lower.

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3. Action Checklist for July Clients

1. Stay balanced between growth stocks (technology, biotech) and defense plays (consumer staples, healthcare services).

2. Keep bond duration short—yields are rising faster than many expected.

3. Hold three months of living costs in easy‑access cash or money‑market funds to cushion surprises.

4. Review exposure to non‑U.S. assets. A softer dollar lifts foreign returns in dollar terms.

5. Crypto: proceed with caution. Limit any position to a size you can tolerate in a 40 % drawdown; prefer transparent, regulated funds over unverified platforms.

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4. Bottom Line

Maintaining a well‑diversified mix—quality equities, shorter bonds, selective real assets, and (if appropriate) a measured crypto slice—remains the most sensible path.

Stay in touch with your Just Service Global adviser to adjust holdings as data and policies evolve through the rest of July.

— Just Service Client Service Team

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your personal financial planning on track.

Just Service Global Adviser Network

Your Window to Global Insights

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At Just Service, we believe in providing clients with a diverse range of expert perspectives to help inform their investment strategies as part of their personal financial planning. In this edition, we are pleased to share an insightful market analysis from our valued partner, Dominion Fund Management, on the enduring strengths of Western economies.

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Year-to-Date Performance as of June 30, 2025 – June’s Highlights:

• Gold: Rose +27.9%

  
  

• Silver: Gained +23.3%

  
  

• The U.S. Dollar: Fell -8.7%

  
  

• The S&P 500: Rose +3.6%

  
  

• Bitcoin: Climbed +13.5%

Why The West Is Still has the edge

An analysis from Dominion Fund Management

The narrative that the West, led by America, is in a phase of relative decline is common nowadays. From political gridlock in Washington to economic stagnation in parts of Europe, and the rise of BRICS and emerging markets, it's become fashionable to say the future lies elsewhere.

But we’re still bullish on the West. And recent geopolitical events offer a compelling reminder of why. The battlefield, grim as it may be, often reveals where real power lies. And what we’ve seen in recent conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, is this: Western technology still dominates. And for investors, that means one thing: the West should remain the core of your global investment portfolio.

Take the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, where the Israel-Hamas war has escalated into a wider regional standoff involving Iran and its proxies. Setting aside the political and humanitarian dimensions, this war has inadvertently become a stark reminder of where technological supremacy lies.

From air defense systems like the Israeli Iron Dome, powered by American and Israeli software and hardware, to precision-guided munitions, satellite surveillance, and AI-driven threat detection, the entire military playbook runs on Western innovation.

Iran’s recent massive missile and drone attack on Israel in April was repelled with near-total effectiveness by a Western-aligned coalition using US, UK, and French systems. Hyped-up Iranian drones? Almost all of them downed. Ballistic missiles? Intercepted mid-air. The message was clear: in a high-stakes, high-tech confrontation, Western defense technology works, and it works better than anything else out there.

But this isn’t just about missiles. These same technologies—sensors, automation, real-time data integration, advanced manufacturing—are the backbone of some of the most powerful commercial trends today. The companies behind these defense systems often have a foot in civilian sectors too: think semiconductors, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and AI.

Western firms still lead in these areas. The US is home to the most advanced chip designers (NVIDIA, AMD), software platforms (Microsoft, Palantir), and defense primes (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman). Europe is no slouch either, with aerospace leaders like Airbus and critical suppliers like ASML in the Netherlands, which produces the machines that power the global semiconductor industry.

Yes, there’s competition from China. Yes, emerging markets are growing. But if you want quality, trust, transparency, and cutting-edge tech, then you’re still looking West.

The West still has its problems. Elections are polarized. Social media amplifies division. But when the world throws up hard tests, like war, pandemics, or financial shocks, Western democracies, while messy, respond well and they adapt.

The same can’t always be said elsewhere. China’s real estate crisis and opaque data, Russia’s war-driven isolation, Turkey’s flawed monetary experiments. There’s innovation and energy in the Global South, but the guardrails aren’t always there.

The West’s strength isn’t just its technology; it’s the institutions, markets, and systems that turn that technology into durable economic value.

The next time someone says, ‘the West is finished,’ ask them to explain why the most sophisticated systems in war, finance, biotech, and AI still have Western flags on them.

Investors must not be fooled by the noise. The West is still best. The tech is real. The innovation engine is alive. Western democracy, while somewhat flawed, is still adaptive and is passing the tests that history keeps throwing at it.

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Dominion Fund Management and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Just Service Global Adviser Network. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with your Just Service financial adviser to discuss your individual circumstances.

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your personal financial planning on track.

Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

Just Service Global Market Update – 2 June 2025

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1. May 2025

Market gauge	May result	2025 year-to-date	Key point
S&P 500 (the 500 biggest U.S. companies)	up ~6 %	down ~1 %	Hopes that tariff hikes might pause boosted prices, then some profit-taking at month-end
Nasdaq 100 (mostly large tech names)	up ~10 %	up ~4 %	Artificial-intelligence giants led the charge
European shares	up 2 %	down 5 %	Southern Europe held up; German exporters worried about import taxes
Asian shares (excluding Japan)	down 3 %	down 8 %	Higher U.S. tariffs hurt Asian exporters
Bitcoin (largest crypto-currency)	up 12 %	up 15 %	New “exchange-traded funds” poured money into Bitcoin

(Returns include price moves plus any dividends.)

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2. Main Forces Moving Markets

Tariffs (import taxes)

• The United States delayed a big tariff increase on Europe until 9 July but kept very high taxes on Chinese goods. Legal battles make the timetable unclear, and investors dislike that uncertainty.

Economic clues

• Inflation (Consumer Price Index): Prices in April were 2.3 % higher than a year earlier, the slowest rise in four years.

• Trade gap: America still buys more than it sells abroad, trimming first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) — the broad measure of the economy — by about 0.2 percentage points.

• Jobs: First-time unemployment claims jumped to 241 000 in early May, the highest since February.

• Interest rates: The Federal Reserve — the U.S. central bank — kept its main rate at 4.25 %–4.50 % and said the tariff picture makes the outlook blurry.

Which sectors are hot or not

Sector	Current trend	Why it matters
Technology & Artificial Intelligence	Strong sales; possible future antitrust probes	Growth driver for U.S. stock indexes
Clean (green) energy	Long-term promise, short-term swings in subsidies and costs	Attractive but bumpy ride
Health care & biotechnology	Steady drug discoveries; politicians still eye pricing rules	Good for steady growth seekers
Manufacturing & heavy industry	Hit by higher import costs; moving factories home is expensive	Profits under pressure
Consumer spending	Wage growth still beats inflation, but April retail sales slowed	Early warning sign if shoppers pull back

Crypto as a shock absorber

Bitcoin drew about US $5.5 billion of fresh money through new exchange-traded funds in May and now moves less in sync with stocks. Some investors treat it as an alternative safety valve.

3. Three Possible Paths for the Rest of 2025

Scenario	Our odds*	Likely mood in markets	Portfolio ideas (simple version)
A. Choppy but okay – tariff increases delayed again; growth stays slow	55%	Big day-to-day swings but no meltdown	Keep a mix: strong tech names, some green-energy and cash-rich health-care firms, plus a balance of short- and long-dated government bonds
B. Trouble grows – tariffs bite hard, economy slows yet prices stay high (“stagflation”)	30%	Stocks could fall 15 % or more; investors flock to U.S. dollars, gold, and Bitcoin	Hold extra cash, add gold or other raw materials, favour defensive health-care shares
C. Pleasant surprise – tariffs rolled back, inflation keeps cooling	15%	Broad rally led by smaller, cheaper companies	Shift some funds into small-company shares and select European and Asian bargains

*House view from the JSG Investment Committee, June 2025.

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4. Simple Action List

1. Spread your bets — diversify across countries, industries, and types of assets (shares, bonds, cash, maybe a small crypto slice).

2. Watch these four signposts:

• U.S. inflation report on 12 June — first to show any direct tariff impact.

  
  

• Weekly new unemployment claims — a steady climb above 250 000 would flash warning lights.

  
  

• Ten-year U.S. government-bond yield — above 4.5 % could signal stress.

  
  

• Bitcoin near US $120 000 — a key test of momentum.

3. Keep enough “rainy-day” cash — ideally at least three months of living costs in easy-to-access form.

4. Talk with your adviser — tax rules, tariffs, and markets can change fast; professional guidance helps you stay on course.

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5. Bottom Line

May delivered the best stock bounce in decades, yet warning signs — uncertain tariffs, weaker factory surveys (Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI), and rising jobless claims — tell us to stay nimble. A well-diversified, regularly reviewed portfolio is the smartest play for the rest of 2025.

Stay in close touch with your adviser in the Just Service Global (JSG) Network to keep your investments and risk level on track.

Regards,

The Just Service Client Service Team